Nate Silver Poker

Posted on 4/10/2022 admin

gramussimul1970.netlify.com › ▆ ▆ Nate Silver Poker

Nate Silver is competing the $2 million Aussie Millions poker tournament against the top 20 poker players in the world at Crown Casino, which concludes on Sunday. Originally published as What poker teaches you about life Jump back to top. Nate Silver: Poker is a Good Skill to Have The 35 year old has actually been itching to get back into poker and so when Crown Casino asked if he’d be interested in playing the 2013 Aussie Millions he jumped at the opportunity. The 2013 Aussie Millions. Nate Silver’s coronavirus tweets really have been godawful. I do cringe at those. As for his primary model, I think he was trying to be too clever and inputting some weird theories of his own. His site is still a great resource for tracking polls though but the articles are a lot more boring compared to your columns which I enjoy. The Signal and the Noise Summary. Thanks for exploring this SuperSummary Plot Summary of “The Signal and the Noise” by Nate Silver. A modern alternative to SparkNotes and CliffsNotes, SuperSummary offers high-quality study guides that feature detailed chapter summaries and analysis of major themes, characters, quotes, and essay topics.

Nate Silver quit his $55,000-a-year financial consulting job in April to play poker.

So far it's been a wise career move: The 26-year-old Silver expects to make more than $100,000 this year playing the card game, mainly on the Internet.

Silver belongs to a new generation of poker players who feast on the growing number of novices taking up poker after watching televised contests.

While few players go to the extreme of quitting their jobs, many spend their evenings stalking sites like PartyPoker.com and PokerStars.com, pocketing an extra $20,000 or $30,000 annually on top of their regular salaries.

And as more novices keep appearing, opportunity grows for experienced players.

'You'll see people make terrible plays routinely,' said Silver, who lives in Wrigleyville. 'For the most part these people call too much and play too aggressively.'

Online poker has exploded along with the recent surge of interest in the game.

In January 2003, $11.1 million was wagered on the major poker sites. That number rocketed to $136.1 million last month, according to PokerPulse.com, which tracks activity on 21 of the largest poker sites.

Total gambling at poker sites will easily clear $1 billion this year, based on PokerPulse's figures, which likely undercount total betting since they do not include popular online poker tournaments that charge entry fees.

People trying to bank quick online profits are reminiscent of another recent Internet phenomenon--day traders.

Rather than making rapid-fire stock trades online, these gamblers seek profits by leveraging small advantages with their poker experience, discipline and statistical savvy. While their gains and losses vary widely day to day, experienced players say the odds are heavily in their favor in the long run.

Still, the easy money could quickly disappear if the current poker fad fades.

Mike Kim, who lives in Lincoln Park, said he plays online poker every day, sometimes for a couple of hours and sometimes for 12 hours straight. He said his average winnings are $15,000 a month.

'I had no idea it would become my full-time job,' said Kim, who started playing online nearly a year ago while studying mechanical engineering at the University of Illinois. 'I didn't find a job when I graduated so I just kept playing for money.'

The 23-year-old Kim is no longer looking for a job, although his family is concerned he will lose money.

'At first they didn't like it because they thought I was gambling,' Kim said. 'When I told them how much money I made, they kind of understood I couldn't go back to a regular job.'

Neal Salmen, a 28-year-old Chicago real estate investor who said he has made about $25,000 this year playing online poker, noted the anonymity of Internet games often makes new players more aggressive. In casinos, Salmen said, 'You don't want to look too stupid so people play more conservatively.'

Internet poker offers experienced players some advantages, particularly the ability to play at multiple tables at the same time. Online games generally go faster than casino games, and by playing three or four tables simultaneously, players can easily participate in more than 200 hands an hour.

The main disadvantage of Internet play for poker pros is the inability to 'read' competitors--noticing small ticks and other mannerisms that can reveal if somebody is holding a strong hand or bluffing.

Even at in-person games, pros often have more trouble reading the novices.

'It's hard to read someone if they don't know if they have a good hand,' said Jim Karamanis, a Chicago attorney who plays online and in-person poker recreationally.

Nobody tracks how many people play poker for a living, but the number appears to be growing.

'Certainly at this point there are thousands,' said Greg Raymer, who left his job as a patent attorney at Pfizer Inc. after winning $5 million this year at poker's biggest event, the World Series of Poker.

The lure of Internet poker has intensified since Raymer and the 2003 World Series winner gained entry into the casino events, which were broadcast on ESPN, by winning online tournaments.

To prosper at Internet poker, players must be technically strong and quickly assess the thousands of scenarios that arise--betting aggressively on strong hands and folding when they're in a weak position.

Signing on to EmpirePoker.com late Tuesday afternoon, Silver put $1,000 into his account and folded most hands before the first round of betting, losing his $15 ante. On the first hand he played, Silver lost $170.

Nate Silver Wsop 2019

'If I lose $170 on a hand, it's nothing,' Silver said. 'You can't let it get to you.'

Silver usually plays on weekday evenings and sometimes stays up until sunrise so he can play against aggressive Scandinavian players.

'My sleep schedule has been terrible recently,' said Silver, who also does work for Baseball Prospectus, which does statistical analysis of baseball games.

Silver said he's done much better financially with online poker than he expected, though he and other players acknowledge their profitable poker days may not be long-lived.

'I'm just trying to ride it out,' said Kim. 'If poker starts dying down, I'm going to have to get a real job.'

The Signal and the Noise
Author	Nate Silver
Country	United States
Language	English
Genre	Non-fiction
Publisher	Penguin Group
27 September 2012
Pages	534
Awards	Phi Beta Kappa Award in Science, 2013
ISBN	978-1-59-420411-1

The Signal and the Noise: Why Most Predictions Fail – but Some Don't (alternatively stylized as The Signal and the Noise : Why So Many Predictions Fail – but Some Don't) is a 2012 book by Nate Silver detailing the art of using probability and statistics as applied to real-world circumstances. The book includes case studies from baseball, elections, climate change, the 2008 financial crash, poker, and weather forecasting.

Release and sales[edit]

Published in the United States on September 27, 2012, The Signal and The Noise reached the New York Times Best Sellers list as No. 12 for non-fiction hardback books after its first week in print. It dropped to No. 20 in the second week, before rising to No. 13 in the third, and remaining on the non-fiction hardback top 15 list for the following thirteen weeks, with a highest weekly ranking of No. 4.^[1] The book's already strong sales soared right after election night, November 6, jumping 800% and becoming the second best seller on Amazon.com.^[2]

The Signal and the Noise (print edition) was named Amazon's No. 1 Best NonFiction Book for 2012.^[3] It was named by the Wall Street Journal as one of the ten best books of nonfiction published in 2012.^[4]

Silver signing a copy of The Signal and the Noise at SXSW 2013

The book was first released in the United Kingdom in April 2013, with the title The Signal and the Noise: The Art and Science of Prediction, in hardback under an Allen Lane imprint ^[5] and in paperback under a Penguin imprint.^[6]

It was published in Brazil in a Portuguese translation, O sinal e o ruído, in June 2013.^[7] A German edition was released in September 2013 by the publisher Heine Verlag, using a somewhat different main title: The Calculation of the Future.^[8] An Italian version, Il segnale e il rumore. Arte e scienza della previsione, appeared in October 2013.^[9] A Finnish translation, Signaali ja kohina, appeared in 2014.

The book was published in simplified Chinese characters by China Citic Press in Beijing^[10] as well as in traditional Chinese characters by Suncolor Press in Taipei^[11] in Fall 2013. It was published in Japanese in November 2013.^[12] A Spanish translation appeared in April 2014, under the title La señal y el ruido.^[13]

In 2013, an edition was published in Romanian by Publica press: Semnalul și zgomotul: de ce atât de multe predicții dau greș - pe când altele reușesc.^[14] In May 2014, an edition was published in Czech: Signál a šum. Většina předpovědí selže. Některé ne.^[15]

A Korean language edition was published by The Quest in July 2014.^[16].

A Polish edition was scheduled for publication in hardcover in 2015 by Helion: Sygnal i szum: Sztuka prognozowania w erze technologii.^[17]

The Signal and the Noise was first published in paperback in the United States on February 3, 2015.^[18] It contained a new introduction.^[19] It reached The New York Times paperback best seller list, ranked No. 4 in the field of Education in March 2015.^[20]

Synopsis[edit]

The book emphasizes Silver's skill, which is the practical art of mathematical model building using probability and statistics. Silver takes a big-picture approach to using statistical tools, combining sources of unique data (e.g., timing a minor league ball player's fastball using a radar gun), with historical data and principles of sound statistical analysis, many of which are violated by many pollsters and pundits who nonetheless have important media roles.

The book includes richly detailed case studies from baseball, elections, climate change, the financial crash, poker, and weather forecasting. These different topics illustrate different statistical principles. For example, weather forecasting is used to introduce the idea of 'calibration,' or how well weather forecasts fit actual weather outcomes. There is much on the need for improved expressions of uncertainty in all statistical statements, reflecting ranges of probable outcomes and not just single 'point estimates' like averages.

Silver would like to see the media move away from vague terminology like 'Obama has an edge in Ohio' or 'Florida still a toss-up state' to probability statements, like 'the probability of Obama winning the electoral college is 83%, while the expected fraction won by him of the popular vote is now 50.1% with an error range of ±2%'. Such statements give odds on outcomes, including a 17% chance of Romney winning the electoral college. The shares of the popular vote similarly are ranges including outcomes in which Romney gets the most votes. What is highly probable is that the voting shares are in these ranges, but not whose share is highest; that's another probability question with closer odds. From such information, it's up to the consumer of such statements to use that information as best they can in dealing with an uncertain future in an age of information overload. That last idea frames Silver's entire narrative and motivates his pedagogical mission.

Silver rejects much ideology taught with statistical method in colleges and universities today, specifically the 'frequentist' approach of Ronald Fisher, originator of many classical statistical tests and methods. The problem Silver finds is a belief in perfect experimental, survey, or other designs, when data often comes from a variety of sources and idealized modeling assumptions rarely hold true. Often such models reduce complex questions to overly simple 'hypothesis tests' using arbitrary 'significance levels' to 'accept or reject' a single parameter value.

In contrast, the practical statistician first needs a sound understanding of how baseball, poker, elections or other uncertain processes work, what measures are reliable and which not, what scales of aggregation are useful, and then to utilize the statistical tool kit as well as possible. Silver believes in the need for extensive data sets, preferably collected over long periods of time, from which one can then use statistical techniques to incrementally change probabilities up or down relative to prior data. This 'Bayesian' approach is named for the 18th century minister Thomas Bayes who discovered a simple formula for updating probabilities using new data. For Silver, the well-known method needs revitalizing as a broader paradigm for thinking about uncertainty, founded on learning and understanding gained incrementally, rather than through any single set of observations or an ideal model summarized by just a few key parameters. Part of that learning is the informal process of changing assumptions or the modeling approach, in the spirit of a craft whose goal is to devise the best betting odds on well-defined future events and their outcomes.

Criticism and commentary[edit]

Climate scientist Michael E. Mann criticized the book for analyzing the 'hard science' physical phenomena of climate trends with the same approach as used to analyze the social phenomena of voter preferences, which he characterized as 'laden with subjective and untestable assumptions'.^[21]

Murray Cantor, IBM Distinguished Engineer, wrote 'Nate Silver's The Signal and Noise is an excellent description of how prediction works. However, he purposefully leaves out the mathematics. In 2012, after his triumph of predicting the outcome of the last two presidential elections and selling his 'fivethirtyeight' blog to the New York Times, Nate Silver accomplished what is almost impossible. In his recent book The Signal and the Noise, he correctly describes the discipline of making predictions, without explicitly invoking the math. He accomplishes this feat even though the prediction methods he describes require more than one kind of mathematics. By leaving out the math, he has reached a broad audience with a compelling book with lots of examples.'^[22]

Awards[edit]